Decision tree
Decision analysis with the rollback computed: decision squares, chance circles and outcome triangles, expected values rolled back from the payoffs and printed on every node, the optimal choice marked at every decision and rejected alternatives struck through. Probabilities under every chance node are validated to sum to 1 (`p rest` takes the complement), branch costs are charged on the way through, and an optional risk profile, a cumulative comparison of first choices, a stochastic-dominance check and exponential-utility certainty equivalents show what the expected value hides. Payoffs can be money, QALYs, or costs to minimise.
In the same space
Most users come to Decision tree from TreeAge Pro, Palisade PrecisionTree, SilverDecisions or Excel decision-tree add-ins. flowss runs this engine in the browser — no install, shareable via URL, exportable to PNG / SVG / PDF / source.
Syntax at a glance
decision "Launch?"
"Launch" cost 1,200 -> chance "Demand"
"Strong" p 0.4 -> 5,000
"Weak" p rest -> 800
"Shelve" -> 0Paste this in the Studio code pane to see Decision tree render live. The full grammar is at the upstream-docs link above.
Sample templates
All 12 →A two-stage launch decision with a year-2 capacity option: the rollback values launching in-house at $3,583k against $3,300k for licensing and marks adding a second line as optimal after strong demand, while the cumulative risk profile shows the 25% chance of a loss that licensing avoids. Illustrative values.
The value-of-information classic: a regional test with Bayes-consistent posteriors (0.694 after a favourable read, 0.118 after an unfavourable one) is worth $4,421k against $3,600k for launching blind, so the $800k test pays for itself and the tree abandons after a bad read. Illustrative values.
An exploration decision with an information option: 3-D seismic at $350k splits the prospect into closed-structure and no-closure posteriors, after which the tree drills on closure and farms out otherwise — worth $1,816k against $1,280k for farming out blind and $980k for drilling blind. Illustrative values.
A clinical decision analysis in quality-adjusted life years: a direct oral anticoagulant, aspirin or no therapy for atrial fibrillation with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 2, with stroke severity, intracranial and extracranial bleeds — the DOAC arm rolls back to 7.129 QALY, 0.115 QALY ahead of aspirin. Illustrative values for teaching, not clinical guidance.
Severe knee osteoarthritis with a downstream decision: replacing the knee now rolls back to 6.64 QALY over ten years against 5.84 QALY for conservative care, which itself carries a year-3 choice where delayed replacement beats staying conservative after progression. Illustrative values for teaching, not clinical guidance.
A cost-minimisation tree for low-risk community-acquired pneumonia: outpatient antibiotics, a 24-hour observation unit or admission, with treatment-failure admissions costed in — outpatient care rolls back to an expected $1,480 per patient against $3,080 for observation and $10,016 for admission. Illustrative values.
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