12 templates
Decision tree templates
Decision analysis with the rollback computed: decision squares, chance circles and outcome triangles, expected values rolled back from the payoffs and printed on every node, the optimal choice marked at every decision and rejected alternatives struck through. Probabilities under every chance node are validated to sum to 1 (`p rest` takes the complement), branch costs are charged on the way through, and an optional risk profile, a cumulative comparison of first choices, a stochastic-dominance check and exponential-utility certainty equivalents show what the expected value hides. Payoffs can be money, QALYs, or costs to minimise.
Decision Tree — Launch, License or Shelve a New Product
A two-stage launch decision with a year-2 capacity option: the rollback values launching in-house at $3,583k against $3,300k for licensing and marks adding a second line as optimal after strong demand, while the cumulative risk profile shows the 25% chance of a loss that licensing avoids. Illustrative values.
Business & StrategyDecision Tree — Test Market Before a National Launch
The value-of-information classic: a regional test with Bayes-consistent posteriors (0.694 after a favourable read, 0.118 after an unfavourable one) is worth $4,421k against $3,600k for launching blind, so the $800k test pays for itself and the tree abandons after a bad read. Illustrative values.
Business & StrategyDecision Tree — Wildcat Well: Seismic, Drill or Farm Out
An exploration decision with an information option: 3-D seismic at $350k splits the prospect into closed-structure and no-closure posteriors, after which the tree drills on closure and farms out otherwise — worth $1,816k against $1,280k for farming out blind and $980k for drilling blind. Illustrative values.
Geo & SpatialDecision Tree — Atrial Fibrillation Anticoagulation (QALYs)
A clinical decision analysis in quality-adjusted life years: a direct oral anticoagulant, aspirin or no therapy for atrial fibrillation with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 2, with stroke severity, intracranial and extracranial bleeds — the DOAC arm rolls back to 7.129 QALY, 0.115 QALY ahead of aspirin. Illustrative values for teaching, not clinical guidance.
Research & AcademicDecision Tree — Knee Replacement Now or Conservative Care (QALYs)
Severe knee osteoarthritis with a downstream decision: replacing the knee now rolls back to 6.64 QALY over ten years against 5.84 QALY for conservative care, which itself carries a year-3 choice where delayed replacement beats staying conservative after progression. Illustrative values for teaching, not clinical guidance.
Research & AcademicDecision Tree — Pneumonia Site of Care (Expected Cost)
A cost-minimisation tree for low-risk community-acquired pneumonia: outpatient antibiotics, a 24-hour observation unit or admission, with treatment-failure admissions costed in — outpatient care rolls back to an expected $1,480 per patient against $3,080 for observation and $10,016 for admission. Illustrative values.
Operations & OpsDecision Tree — Overhaul, Monitor or Run to Failure (Risk-Averse)
A maintenance strategy for a critical pump, minimising 12-month cost with a risk tolerance of $400k: condition monitoring has the lowest expected cost ($81.0k) but its tail of unplanned trips gives it a certainty equivalent of $94.7k, so the risk-averse choice is the planned overhaul (CE $87.6k). Illustrative values.
Risk & ReliabilityDecision Tree — Tender Strategy: Bid High, Bid Low or Walk Away
A contractor's bid decision with a downstream procurement choice: bidding high wins less often but rolls back to $447k against $264k for bidding low, and in both branches a fixed-price steelwork subcontract beats self-performing once overrun risk is priced in. Illustrative values.
Project & PlanningDecision Tree — Settle, Counter-Offer or Go to Trial
A plaintiff's litigation tree net of US$350k trial costs: countering at $1.6M rolls back to $1,164k, just ahead of accepting the $1,100k offer and well ahead of an immediate trial at $929k — while the cumulative profile shows the 29% chance of a net loss that buys that margin. Illustrative values, not legal advice.
Business & StrategyDecision Tree — Drug Development Stage Gates (Phase II to Approval)
A pharmaceutical stage-gate tree with costs paid as each phase starts: funding Phase II rolls back to $70.7M against $35.0M for out-licensing now, with a Phase III go decision on a positive readout — and a risk profile showing the 83% chance the programme loses money. Illustrative values.
Research & AcademicDecision Tree — Buy Flood Cover? (Risk Tolerance)
Why firms insure against negative expected value: going uninsured has the best expected outcome (−$35.4k) but, with a risk tolerance of $250k, a certainty equivalent of −$186.8k, so the risk-averse choice is the high-excess policy (CE −$40.4k) — the switch the tree states outright. Illustrative values.
Risk & ReliabilityDecision Tree — Ransomware Response: Restore, Pay or Rebuild
An incident-response cost tree: restoring from immutable backups, with a fallback rebuild if they were also encrypted, rolls back to an expected $676k against $1,980k for rebuilding and $1,995k for paying the ransom, whose tail runs to $4,000k when the decryptor fails. Illustrative values.
Operations & Ops