Decision Matrix — Choosing an Evaluation Design
A research steering group weighs four designs for evaluating a falls-prevention programme on 12 wards — individually randomised, stepped-wedge, interrupted time series and matched cohort — with time to result and evaluation cost measured. The interrupted time series ranks first at 4.15 of 5, 0.48 ahead of the stepped-wedge trial, which overtakes only if control of confounding rises from 25% to 49.2% of the weight; the matched cohort is dominated. Illustrative values.
Make it your own.
title "Falls-prevention programme — choosing the evaluation design"
subtitle "Research steering group, 12 wards across two hospitals · 1 = weak, 5 = strong"
note "Illustrative judgements for a fictional NHS-style programme; costs are evaluation costs only."
option "Individually randomised trial" "patients randomised within wards"
option "Stepped-wedge cluster trial" "wards cross over in 4 steps"
option "Interrupted time series" "36 months of routine incident data"
option "Matched cohort" "intervention vs matched wards"
"Control of confounding" weight 25 : 5 4 3 2
"Contamination between arms" weight 15 : 1 5 4 3
"Feasibility on 12 wards" weight 15 : 2 4 5 4
"Time to a result" weight 15 unit "months" lower : 30 26 14 18
"Evaluation cost" weight 10 unit "£k" lower : 640 480 120 210
"Ethics & acceptability" weight 10 : 3 4 5 4
"Generalisability" weight 10 : 3 4 3 3