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Risk Matrix — Outdoor Festival Event Safety Risk Assessment

An event safety risk assessment for a fictional 40,000-a-day festival with custom bands (Low 1–4, Medium 5–9, High 10–16, Very high 20–25): controls cut exposure from 111 to 59 (−47%) and leave the main-stage crowd crush at High 10, above appetite, with a second pressure-relief barrier as the treatment. Illustrative register.

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Larkspur Fields festival — event safety risk assessmentThree days, 40,000 a day · reviewed with the safety advisory groupHEAT MAP · residual position, arrows from inherent11LOWLOW22LOWLOW33LOWLOW44LOWLOW55MEDIUMMEDIUM22LOWLOW44LOWLOW66MEDIUMMEDIUM88MEDIUMMEDIUM1010HIGHHIGH33LOWLOW66MEDIUMMEDIUM99MEDIUMMEDIUM1212HIGHHIGH1515HIGHHIGH44LOWLOW88MEDIUMMEDIUM1212HIGHHIGH1616HIGHHIGH2020VERY HIGHVERY HIGH55MEDIUMMEDIUM1010HIGHHIGH1515HIGHHIGH2020VERY HIGHVERY HIGH2525VERY HIGHVERY HIGHF9F6F8F5F9F2F3F1F6F7F4F8F5F1F3F7F4F2Rare1Unlikely2Possible3Likely4Almost certain51Negligiblefirst aid2Minorminor injury3Moderatehospital treatment4Majorserious injury5Catastrophicfatality or multiplecasualtiesLIKELIHOOD →IMPACT →R1residual position (after controls)R1inherent positioneffect of existing controlsappetite boundary · red ring = above it25L×I score and rating bandRISK PROFILE BY BANDInherentResidual (current)Very high0 → 0High7 → 1Medium2 → 6Low0 → 2Low 1–4 · Medium 5–9 · High 10–16 · Very high 20–25EXPOSURE Σ L×I59residual, after current controlsfrom 111 inherent · −47%HIGHEST RESIDUAL RISKF1Crowd crush at the main-stage barrierduring the headline set10 · Highowner Head of Crowd ManagementRISK APPETITEMedium or below1 risk above: F1Risk register9 risks · sorted by residual rating, then score#IDRISK, CONTROLS AND ACTIONSOWNERINHERENTRESIDUALTARGETCHANGECROWD SAFETYCrowd crush at the main-stage barrier during the headline setD-shaped front-of-stage barrier with a staffed pitCCTV crowd-density monitoring with a show-stop procedure→Add a second pressure-relief barrier line — due 2027-05 · Site Manager1F1Head of CrowdManagement3 × 515 · High2 × 510 · HighABOVE APPETITE1 × 55 · Medium−5−33%MEDICALDrug-related harm on siteMedical and welfare tents with a field hospitalDrug-checking service and harm-reduction messaging2F4Medical Director4 × 416 · High3 × 39 · Medium—−7−44%CROWD SAFETYEgress bottleneck at the north gate after the headlinerPhased egress plan with 4-metre exitsStewards at one per 250 attendees on egress routes3F2Head of CrowdManagement4 × 416 · High2 × 48 · Medium—−8−50%WEATHERLightning or high winds over stage structuresSite-specific forecast service and wind monitoring on every stageStructure operating limits with a rehearsed shelter-and-hold plan4F3Event SafetyOfficer3 × 515 · High2 × 48 · Medium—−7−47%FIREFire in the campsiteSix-metre fire breaks between camping blocksFire marshal patrols and a ban on gas cylinders5F5Fire SafetyManager3 × 412 · High2 × 36 · Medium—−6−50%SAFEGUARDINGLost or vulnerable childWristbands carrying a parent's phone numberStaffed welfare point with a lost-child procedure6F7Safeguarding Lead4 × 312 · High3 × 26 · Medium—−6−50%SECURITYHostile vehicle or terrorist attack at the entrancesHostile-vehicle mitigation barriers at every entranceSearch regime and counter-terrorism awareness training for staff7F6Head of Security2 × 510 · High1 × 55 · Medium—−5−50%MEDICALHeat illness on a hot dayFree water points and shaded areas8F8Medical Director3 × 39 · Medium2 × 24 · Low—−5−56%FOOD SAFETYFood poisoning from a traderTraders admitted only with a food hygiene rating of 4 or 5Environmental health inspections on day one9F9Traders Manager2 × 36 · Medium1 × 33 · Low—−3−50%FINDINGS9 risks rated — inherent 7 High, 2 Medium; after current controls 1 High, 6 Medium, 2 Low.Total exposure Σ(L×I) falls from 111 to 59 after current controls — a 47% reduction.Controls move 8 of 9 assessed risks into a lower band; 1 keeps its inherent band.1 of 9 risks sits above the Medium appetite on residual rating — F1 (High 10); it has a treatment action.Highest residual risk: F1 Crowd crush at the main-stage barrier during the headline set — High 10, owner Head of Crowd Management.Controls do most for F2: 16 → 8 (−50%).Illustrative assessment for a fictional festival; hazards, controls and ratings are examples, not an event safety plan.

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title "Larkspur Fields festival — event safety risk assessment"
subtitle "Three days, 40,000 a day · reviewed with the safety advisory group"
likelihood-levels: Rare, Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Almost certain
impact-levels: Negligible (first aid), Minor (minor injury), Moderate (hospital treatment), Major (serious injury), Catastrophic (fatality or multiple casualties)
bands: Low 1-4 green, Medium 5-9 amber, High 10-16 orange, Very high 20-25 red
appetite: Medium
note "Illustrative assessment for a fictional festival; hazards, controls and ratings are examples, not an event safety plan."

risk F1 "Crowd crush at the main-stage barrier during the headline set"
  category: Crowd safety
  owner: Head of Crowd Management
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 5
  control "D-shaped front-of-stage barrier with a staffed pit"
  control "CCTV crowd-density monitoring with a show-stop procedure"
  residual: 2x5
  action "Add a second pressure-relief barrier line" due: 2027-05 owner: "Site Manager"
  target: 1x5

risk F2 "Egress bottleneck at the north gate after the headliner"
  category: Crowd safety
  owner: Head of Crowd Management
  likelihood: 4
  impact: 4
  control "Phased egress plan with 4-metre exits"
  control "Stewards at one per 250 attendees on egress routes"
  residual: 2x4

risk F3 "Lightning or high winds over stage structures"
  category: Weather
  owner: Event Safety Officer
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 5
  control "Site-specific forecast service and wind monitoring on every stage"
  control "Structure operating limits with a rehearsed shelter-and-hold plan"
  residual: 2x4

risk F4 "Drug-related harm on site"
  category: Medical
  owner: Medical Director
  likelihood: 4
  impact: 4
  control "Medical and welfare tents with a field hospital"
  control "Drug-checking service and harm-reduction messaging"
  residual: 3x3

risk F5 "Fire in the campsite"
  category: Fire
  owner: Fire Safety Manager
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 4
  control "Six-metre fire breaks between camping blocks"
  control "Fire marshal patrols and a ban on gas cylinders"
  residual: 2x3

risk F6 "Hostile vehicle or terrorist attack at the entrances"
  category: Security
  owner: Head of Security
  likelihood: 2
  impact: 5
  control "Hostile-vehicle mitigation barriers at every entrance"
  control "Search regime and counter-terrorism awareness training for staff"
  residual: 1x5

risk F7 "Lost or vulnerable child"
  category: Safeguarding
  owner: Safeguarding Lead
  likelihood: 4
  impact: 3
  control "Wristbands carrying a parent's phone number"
  control "Staffed welfare point with a lost-child procedure"
  residual: 3x2

risk F8 "Heat illness on a hot day"
  category: Medical
  owner: Medical Director
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 3
  control "Free water points and shaded areas"
  residual: 2x2

risk F9 "Food poisoning from a trader"
  category: Food safety
  owner: Traders Manager
  likelihood: 2
  impact: 3
  control "Traders admitted only with a food hygiene rating of 4 or 5"
  control "Environmental health inspections on day one"
  residual: 1x3