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Risk Matrix — Payments Platform Migration Cutover Register (4×4)

A cutover register for a fictional fintech moving 38 million payment records, on a 4×4 project matrix: controls move every risk down a band and cut exposure from 67 to 33 (−51%), leaving card-scheme certification as the one High risk above the Medium appetite, with a pre-certification test cycle as its treatment. Illustrative register.

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Payments platform migration — cutover risk registerMoving 38 million payment records to the new ledger before peak season · 4×4 project matrixHEAT MAP · residual position, arrows from inherent11LOWLOW22LOWLOW33MEDIUMMEDIUM44MEDIUMMEDIUM22LOWLOW44MEDIUMMEDIUM66HIGHHIGH88HIGHHIGH33MEDIUMMEDIUM66HIGHHIGH99HIGHHIGH1212CRITICALCRITICAL44MEDIUMMEDIUM88HIGHHIGH1212CRITICALCRITICAL1616CRITICALCRITICALM5M3M8M2M4M6M7M8M1M2M3M7M4M6M5M1Unlikely1Possible2Likely3Almost certain41Minorabsorbed by the team2Moderateslips a milestone3Majorslips cutover4Severecustomer money ordata affectedLIKELIHOOD →IMPACT →R1residual position (after controls)R1inherent positioneffect of existing controlsappetite boundary · red ring = above it16L×I score and rating bandRISK PROFILE BY BANDInherentResidual (current)Critical1 → 0High7 → 1Medium0 → 7Low0 → 0Low 1–2 · Medium 3–4 · High 6–9 · Critical 12–16EXPOSURE Σ L×I33residual, after current controlsfrom 67 inherent · −51%HIGHEST RESIDUAL RISKM1Card-scheme certification of the newledger slips8 · Highowner Payments Programme ManagerRISK APPETITEMedium or below1 risk above: M1Risk register8 risks · sorted by residual rating, then score#IDRISK, CONTROLS AND ACTIONSOWNERINHERENTRESIDUALCHANGECOMPLIANCECard-scheme certification of the new ledger slipsCertification lab slot booked eight weeks aheadWeekly liaison call with the card schemes→Run a pre-certification test cycle with the acquirer — due 2027-02 · QALead1M1PaymentsProgrammeManager3 × 412 · Critical2 × 48 · HighABOVE APPETITE−4−33%↓ fallingDATAPayment records lost or corrupted in migrationChecksum reconciliation of every migrated batchThree full dry-run migrations against production snapshots2M2Data MigrationLead2 × 48 · High1 × 44 · Medium−4−50%PERFORMANCEp99 latency regresses under peak loadLoad tests at three times forecast peakFeature-flagged staged rollout by merchant cohort3M4Head of SRE3 × 39 · High2 × 24 · Medium−5−56%FINANCESettlement reconciliation breaks with acquirer filesAutomated three-way reconciliation with daily finance sign-off4M6FinanceOperations Lead3 × 39 · High2 × 24 · Medium−5−56%THIRD PARTYFraud-scoring API rate limits throttle authorisationsClient-side rate limiting with a retry queueContracted burst capacity of five times baseline5M7Integration Lead3 × 26 · High2 × 24 · Medium−2−33%COMPLIANCEPCI DSS scope expands to new servicesTokenisation at the edge; card data never reaches new servicesScope review signed off by the QSA6M5Security Lead3 × 39 · High1 × 33 · Medium−6−67%RESILIENCERollback fails after cutoverDual-write to old and new ledgers for 14 daysRollback runbook rehearsed end to end7M3EngineeringManager2 × 48 · High1 × 33 · Medium−5−63%PEOPLEKey ledger engineer leaves during cutoverPairing and runbook ownership shared across three engineers8M8EngineeringManager2 × 36 · High1 × 33 · Medium−3−50%FINDINGS8 risks rated — inherent 1 Critical, 7 High; after current controls 1 High, 7 Medium.Total exposure Σ(L×I) falls from 67 to 33 after current controls — a 51% reduction.Controls move 8 of 8 assessed risks into a lower band.1 of 8 risks sits above the Medium appetite on residual rating — M1 (High 8); it has a treatment action.Highest residual risk: M1 Card-scheme certification of the new ledger slips — High 8, owner Payments Programme Manager.Controls do most for M5: 9 → 3 (−67%).Illustrative register for a fictional fintech; risks, controls and ratings are examples, not an assessment.

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title "Payments platform migration — cutover risk register"
subtitle "Moving 38 million payment records to the new ledger before peak season · 4×4 project matrix"
likelihood-levels: Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Almost certain
impact-levels: Minor (absorbed by the team), Moderate (slips a milestone), Major (slips cutover), Severe (customer money or data affected)
appetite: Medium
note "Illustrative register for a fictional fintech; risks, controls and ratings are examples, not an assessment."

risk M1 "Card-scheme certification of the new ledger slips"
  category: Compliance
  owner: Payments Programme Manager
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 4
  control "Certification lab slot booked eight weeks ahead"
  control "Weekly liaison call with the card schemes"
  residual: 2x4
  action "Run a pre-certification test cycle with the acquirer" due: 2027-02 owner: "QA Lead"
  trend: falling

risk M2 "Payment records lost or corrupted in migration"
  category: Data
  owner: Data Migration Lead
  likelihood: 2
  impact: 4
  control "Checksum reconciliation of every migrated batch"
  control "Three full dry-run migrations against production snapshots"
  residual: 1x4

risk M3 "Rollback fails after cutover"
  category: Resilience
  owner: Engineering Manager
  likelihood: 2
  impact: 4
  control "Dual-write to old and new ledgers for 14 days"
  control "Rollback runbook rehearsed end to end"
  residual: 1x3

risk M4 "p99 latency regresses under peak load"
  category: Performance
  owner: Head of SRE
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 3
  control "Load tests at three times forecast peak"
  control "Feature-flagged staged rollout by merchant cohort"
  residual: 2x2

risk M5 "PCI DSS scope expands to new services"
  category: Compliance
  owner: Security Lead
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 3
  control "Tokenisation at the edge; card data never reaches new services"
  control "Scope review signed off by the QSA"
  residual: 1x3

risk M6 "Settlement reconciliation breaks with acquirer files"
  category: Finance
  owner: Finance Operations Lead
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 3
  control "Automated three-way reconciliation with daily finance sign-off"
  residual: 2x2

risk M7 "Fraud-scoring API rate limits throttle authorisations"
  category: Third party
  owner: Integration Lead
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 2
  control "Client-side rate limiting with a retry queue"
  control "Contracted burst capacity of five times baseline"
  residual: 2x2

risk M8 "Key ledger engineer leaves during cutover"
  category: People
  owner: Engineering Manager
  likelihood: 2
  impact: 3
  control "Pairing and runbook ownership shared across three engineers"
  residual: 1x3