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Risk Matrix — Automotive Supply Chain Risk Register

A tier-1 brake supplier's supply chain register using group-policy thresholds (Low up to 4, Medium 5–9, High 10–15, Critical 16–25): controls move all eight risks down a band and cut exposure from 100 to 54 (−46%), leaving the single-source brake-controller MCU at High 12, above appetite, with dual-sourcing through PPAP as the treatment. Illustrative register.

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Tier-1 brake systems supplier — supply chain risk register 2027Scored by the supply chain risk council · thresholds set by the group risk policyHEAT MAP · residual position, arrows from inherent11LOWLOW22LOWLOW33LOWLOW44LOWLOW55MEDIUMMEDIUM22LOWLOW44LOWLOW66MEDIUMMEDIUM88MEDIUMMEDIUM1010HIGHHIGH33LOWLOW66MEDIUMMEDIUM99MEDIUMMEDIUM1212HIGHHIGH1515HIGHHIGH44LOWLOW88MEDIUMMEDIUM1212HIGHHIGH1616CRITICALCRITICAL2020CRITICALCRITICAL55MEDIUMMEDIUM1010HIGHHIGH1515HIGHHIGH2020CRITICALCRITICAL2525CRITICALCRITICALSC-08SC-07SC-06SC-02SC-05SC-08SC-04SC-03SC-07SC-01SC-05SC-06SC-04SC-02SC-03SC-01Rare1Unlikely2Possible3Likely4Almost certain51Minimalno line impact2Minorexpediting cost3Moderate<1 day OEM line stoprisk4MajorOEM line stop5Severemulti-day stop or recallLIKELIHOOD →IMPACT →R1residual position (after controls)R1inherent positioneffect of existing controlsappetite boundary · red ring = above it25L×I score and rating bandRISK PROFILE BY BANDInherentResidual (current)Critical1 → 0High5 → 1Medium2 → 5Low0 → 2Low 1–4 · Medium 5–9 · High 10–15 · Critical 16–25EXPOSURE Σ L×I54residual, after current controlsfrom 100 inherent · −46%HIGHEST RESIDUAL RISKSC-01Foundry cuts the allocation of thesingle-source brake controller MCU12 · Highowner Commodity Manager ElectronicsRISK APPETITEMedium or below1 risk above: SC-01Risk register8 risks · sorted by residual rating, then score#IDRISK, CONTROLS AND ACTIONSOWNERINHERENTRESIDUALTARGETCHANGESEMICONDUCTORSFoundry cuts the allocation of the single-source brakecontroller MCUSixteen weeks of buffer stock held at the EMS partnerLong-term agreement with an allocation-priority clause→Qualify the pin-compatible alternative MCU through PPAP — due 2027-Q3 ·Electronics Engineering1SC-01CommodityManagerElectronics4 × 520 · Critical3 × 412 · HighABOVE APPETITE2 × 48 · Medium−8−40%→ stableQUALITYCaliper casting porosity escapes to the OEM assembly lineCT-scan sampling at incoming inspectionLayered process audits at the foundry2SC-02Supplier QualityManager3 × 515 · High2 × 48 · Medium—−7−47%SUPPLIER FINANCESeals supplier enters insolvencyMonthly credit monitoring with early-warning triggersTooling ownership and step-in rights in the contract3SC-05PurchasingDirector3 × 412 · High2 × 48 · Medium—−4−33%LOGISTICSCyber attack at a logistics provider halts deliveriesTwo approved carriers on every laneManual dispatch fallback rehearsed twice a year4SC-06Logistics Manager3 × 412 · High2 × 36 · Medium—−6−50%TRADETariff increase on castings imported from ChinaTariff pass-through clauses in 70% of customer contractsDuty drawback on re-exported assemblies5SC-04Head of Customs& Trade3 × 412 · High3 × 26 · Medium—−6−50%LOGISTICSRed Sea disruption adds three weeks to Asia lead timesCape routing budgeted and pre-bookedSafety stock raised by three weeks on Asian parts6SC-03Logistics Manager4 × 312 · High3 × 26 · Medium—−6−50%COMPLIANCEForced-labour finding in a tier-3 mineral sourceResponsible Minerals Initiative due diligence and traceability audits7SC-08SustainabilityLead2 × 48 · Medium1 × 44 · Low—−4−50%COSTEnergy surcharge claim from the forging supplierEnergy indexation formula with a capped pass-through8SC-07PurchasingDirector3 × 39 · Medium2 × 24 · Low—−5−56%FINDINGS8 risks rated — inherent 1 Critical, 5 High, 2 Medium; after current controls 1 High, 5 Medium, 2 Low.Total exposure Σ(L×I) falls from 100 to 54 after current controls — a 46% reduction.Controls move 8 of 8 assessed risks into a lower band.1 of 8 risks sits above the Medium appetite on residual rating — SC-01 (High 12); it has a treatment action.Highest residual risk: SC-01 Foundry cuts the allocation of the single-source brake controller MCU — High 12, owner Commodity Manager Electronics.Controls do most for SC-01: 20 → 12 (−40%).Illustrative register for a fictional supplier; risks, mitigations and ratings are examples, not an assessment.

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title "Tier-1 brake systems supplier — supply chain risk register 2027"
subtitle "Scored by the supply chain risk council · thresholds set by the group risk policy"
likelihood-levels: Rare, Unlikely, Possible, Likely, Almost certain
impact-levels: Minimal (no line impact), Minor (expediting cost), Moderate (<1 day OEM line stop risk), Major (OEM line stop), Severe (multi-day stop or recall)
thresholds: 4, 9, 15
appetite: Medium
note "Illustrative register for a fictional supplier; risks, mitigations and ratings are examples, not an assessment."

risk SC-01 "Foundry cuts the allocation of the single-source brake controller MCU"
  category: Semiconductors
  owner: Commodity Manager Electronics
  likelihood: 4
  impact: 5
  control "Sixteen weeks of buffer stock held at the EMS partner"
  control "Long-term agreement with an allocation-priority clause"
  residual: 3x4
  action "Qualify the pin-compatible alternative MCU through PPAP" due: 2027-Q3 owner: "Electronics Engineering"
  target: 2x4
  trend: stable

risk SC-02 "Caliper casting porosity escapes to the OEM assembly line"
  category: Quality
  owner: Supplier Quality Manager
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 5
  control "CT-scan sampling at incoming inspection"
  control "Layered process audits at the foundry"
  residual: 2x4

risk SC-03 "Red Sea disruption adds three weeks to Asia lead times"
  category: Logistics
  owner: Logistics Manager
  likelihood: 4
  impact: 3
  control "Cape routing budgeted and pre-booked"
  control "Safety stock raised by three weeks on Asian parts"
  residual: 3x2

risk SC-04 "Tariff increase on castings imported from China"
  category: Trade
  owner: Head of Customs & Trade
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 4
  control "Tariff pass-through clauses in 70% of customer contracts"
  control "Duty drawback on re-exported assemblies"
  residual: 3x2

risk SC-05 "Seals supplier enters insolvency"
  category: Supplier finance
  owner: Purchasing Director
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 4
  control "Monthly credit monitoring with early-warning triggers"
  control "Tooling ownership and step-in rights in the contract"
  residual: 2x4

risk SC-06 "Cyber attack at a logistics provider halts deliveries"
  category: Logistics
  owner: Logistics Manager
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 4
  control "Two approved carriers on every lane"
  control "Manual dispatch fallback rehearsed twice a year"
  residual: 2x3

risk SC-07 "Energy surcharge claim from the forging supplier"
  category: Cost
  owner: Purchasing Director
  likelihood: 3
  impact: 3
  control "Energy indexation formula with a capped pass-through"
  residual: 2x2

risk SC-08 "Forced-labour finding in a tier-3 mineral source"
  category: Compliance
  owner: Sustainability Lead
  likelihood: 2
  impact: 4
  control "Responsible Minerals Initiative due diligence and traceability audits"
  residual: 1x4